It's the Final Count Down (2025 Razorback Football)

[FNG]

[egregious]

People make the faulty assumption that the talent deficit between haves and have nots in the SEC is greater than it is.  I blame the recruiting star system more than anything, as people seem to think it's a linear relationship. 

Alabama, LSU, and Georgia have rosters that are made up of four and five stars.  For the sake of argument lets average that out and say their composite roster is a 4.5 star.  Arkansas is and has always been...even in times of success...three star U.  But those schools' rosters arent 50% better than ours...the variance between best and worst rosters is probably 10-20% at most in the SEC.  Having the right coach, one who develops most of his players, puts them in position to succeed with the right schemes and play calls, and who makes the right decision in close/late situations most of the time, can close that gap significantly. 

That doesn't necessarily mean you're going to beat those guys consistently...most of those schools have good coaches too. But you will beat them when they have an off day occasionally.  And you should consistently beat the other schools with three star rosters...the Ole Miss, Miss State, South Carolina, Missouri type schools.  That should be our starting point.  Get back to the point where we're the best of our tier, sustain that for a little while, then gradually build respect to the point where you can further close the talent gap.

That is a great way to look at it, especially since both of my teams are in the "possibly good but not beating the top dogs consistently" category.  There are always a few teams in that tier that are 9-10 win good every year, just haven't been either of mine lately.

There is no way we should have only beaten A&M once? twice? whatever since they joined the league for example.  We have been closer to the bottom feeders most of the last decade.

[The Whyte Boar]

I don't really think ASU will beat us, but Memphis?  Yeah, that's a possibility.  Like practically every other team in the country now, every year is a crap shoot but they have some scalps in their belts over the years.  They have an SEC inferiority complex and they will be hating and gunning for Arkansas only slightly less than ASU is.  Plus, they are good offensively and if our defense struggles this year, particularly in the secondary and with the pass rush, it could be a long long day.  I mean they went 11-2 last year.  I know doesn't mean much this year, but still...

[DirkPiggler]

I don't really think ASU will beat us, but Memphis?  Yeah, that's a possibility.  Like practically every other team in the country now, every year is a crap shoot but they have some scalps in their belts over the years.  They have an SEC inferiority complex and they will be hating and gunning for Arkansas only slightly less than ASU is.  Plus, they are good offensively and if our defense struggles this year, particularly in the secondary and with the pass rush, it could be a long long day.  I mean they went 11-2 last year.  I know doesn't mean much this year, but still...

Memphis has been one of the better mid-majors since Justin Fuente's time there.  It wouldn't surprise me if they are slight betting favorites. 

That said, a loss is completely unacceptable and should elevate Sam's seat to about the same temp as most of us use to sear steaks. 

[The Whyte Boar]

Memphis has been one of the better mid-majors since Justin Fuente's time there.  It wouldn't surprise me if they are slight betting favorites. 

That said, a loss is completely unacceptable and should elevate Sam's seat to about the same temp as most of us use to sear steaks. 

 A loss should see him having to walk his slightly less fat ass back to Hot Springs.  He doesn't even need to go back to Fayetteville.  We'll have everything shipped.

[FNG]

People make the faulty assumption that the talent deficit between haves and have nots in the SEC is greater than it is.  I blame the recruiting star system more than anything, as people seem to think it's a linear relationship. 

Alabama, LSU, and Georgia have rosters that are made up of four and five stars.  For the sake of argument lets average that out and say their composite roster is a 4.5 star.  Arkansas is and has always been...even in times of success...three star U.  But those schools' rosters arent 50% better than ours...the variance between best and worst rosters is probably 10-20% at most in the SEC.  Having the right coach, one who develops most of his players, puts them in position to succeed with the right schemes and play calls, and who makes the right decision in close/late situations most of the time, can close that gap significantly. 

That doesn't necessarily mean you're going to beat those guys consistently...most of those schools have good coaches too. But you will beat them when they have an off day occasionally.  And you should consistently beat the other schools with three star rosters...the Ole Miss, Miss State, South Carolina, Missouri type schools.  That should be our starting point.  Get back to the point where we're the best of our tier, sustain that for a little while, then gradually build respect to the point where you can further close the talent gap.

Team speed, size and natural strength are immutable factors in a football game but the majority of wins and losses boil down to poor decisions and lack of preparation by players and coaching staffs that result in crucial penalties, turnovers and cheap big plays.

In his heyday, BMFP offenses excelled at attention to detail and creating mismatches that allowed them to outscore more physically gifted opponents. That is how "have-nots" win in a league dominated by "haves".

I will always be grateful to Sam for elevating the football program from the laughingstock status of the Morris debacle to a point where the program is at least respected if no longer feared; but, he was and always will be an assistant coach trying to impersonate a head coach. As long as Twill and BMFP are around, we will win some games we shouldn't but Sam will lose some winnable games, as well.

[Papa Pigeritus]

Memphis has been one of the better mid-majors since Justin Fuente's time there.  It wouldn't surprise me if they are slight betting favorites. 

That said, a loss is completely unacceptable and should elevate Sam's seat to about the same temp as most of us use to sear steaks. 

It also doesn't help that the Memphis game is wedged between Ole Miss and Notre Dame.

It's a perfect storm for bed shitting.

[SwahiliSteve]

It also doesn't help that the Memphis game is wedged between Ole Miss and Notre Dame.

It's a perfect storm for bed shitting.

this. I don't know why yall think memphis is a given. We have a tough schedule and they aren't some cupcake team. Should we win..sure but this is the same dam Pittman that you feel like all game we are winning and then inevitably he fucks it up in the fourth quarter

[DirkPiggler]

Team speed, size and natural strength are immutable factors in a football game but the majority of wins and losses boil down to poor decisions and lack of preparation by players and coaching staffs that result in crucial penalties, turnovers and cheap big plays.

In his heyday, BMFP offenses excelled at attention to detail and creating mismatches that allowed them to outscore more physically gifted opponents. That is how "have-nots" win in a league dominated by "haves".

I will always be grateful to Sam for elevating the football program from the laughingstock status of the Morris debacle to a point where the program is at least respected if no longer feared; but, he was and always will be an assistant coach trying to impersonate a head coach. As long as Twill and BMFP are around, we will win some games we shouldn't but Sam will lose some winnable games, as well.

Coaching is the single most important variable in the success of a college football program. 

I've said it before, but we need to emulate what DVH has done with the baseball program.  When Dave got here we were in the bottom half to third of baseball programs in the SEC, in a league that is at least as competitive and difficult in that sport as it is in football.  Our only out of state recruiting at the time was dipping into adjacent states, and following Norm's path of grabbing some upside guys from northern states who didn't get the exposure to be noticed by LSU, Texas, USC, etc.  Dave got the absolute most out of the talent he had, and put some CWS years on the stadium wall. 

Every year we got marginally better, upped our profile a little bit.  Each additional winning season gave us a little more cache with recruits and built our national reputation.  Now we can and do recruit coast to coast, and are considered one of the top programs nationally...even holding the dreaded title of "Best Program Without a Championship." 

It's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight, and certainly debatable if what he was building would be sustainable, but this is exactly what Petrino appeared to be doing when he was head coach here, and why it was so foolish to fire him over an HR issue.  After 2008 we never lost to a team with equal or inferior talent under his watch, and we grabbed a few scalps from bigger programs.  He was doing the absolute best he could with the talent we could acquire, and we went from being pore lil arkiesaw to garnering some national attention and respect. 

[DirkPiggler]

It also doesn't help that the Memphis game is wedged between Ole Miss and Notre Dame.

It's a perfect storm for bed shitting.

Honestly the fact that it's on the road gives me some hope. 

I saw somewhere that we are the worst power five team at playing at home...don't recall the metric they used, but it was something that took into account the quality of opponent rather than just straight W/L record.

[vegashog]

memphis lost all 11 starters on defense plus a lot of backups. only 3 returning on offense and will start a qb from the portal.

who knows how the game will go but they won't be the team that went 11-2 last season.

[Barton Fink]

Fair assessment, but it's been proven over the last three years that Sam will cost his coordinators a game or two per season with either indecision or poor choices that have to be made by the head coach.  The 7-17 record in one score games is a horrible look for any head coach, particularly when two of the 17 are Liberty and BYU at home, and several others are games where we had fourth quarter leads.

And that is where we differ. To me. losing close games is more indicative of lesser talent. Coach"s responsibility is to put you in a position to win games. Players more often determine the outcome.  There is a reason they say "big time players make big time plays". We've had very few ppl layers in his tenure that were drafted and none in the early rounds.

Sam's biggest issue is he can't get us better talent wise. He has the coaches around him to win more games if they had better talent.

[DirkPiggler]

memphis lost all 11 starters on defense plus a lot of backups. only 3 returning on offense and will start a qb from the portal.

who knows how the game will go but they won't be the team that went 11-2 last season.

They're 28-6 at home under Silverfield, including a win over Miss State when they weren't complete ass under Leach. 

[DirkPiggler]

And that is where we differ. To me. losing close games is more indicative of lesser talent. Coach"s responsibility is to put you in a position to win games. Players more often determine the outcome.  There is a reason they say "big time players make big time plays". We've had very few ppl layers in his tenure that were drafted and none in the early rounds.

Sam's biggest issue is he can't get us better talent wise. He has the coaches around him to win more games if they had better talent.

Sometimes that is the case.  Others, it isn't.

Let's just look at 2022.

We lost to A&M because we missed a late FG in a situation where we shouldn't have been playing for one.  We had plenty of time to score a TD, but chose to go conservative and rely on our kicker...a great one, but like all college kickers, not a sure thing. 

Liberty beat us by two at home.  There is no universe where their talent was even comparable to ours.

LSU scored their only touchdown on a short field, because Pittman thought the smart play was to go for it on 4th and long with a backup QB who couldn't throw.  We lost by 3.

We also played for a FG from the three yard line down five versus Missouri in the 4th quarter, made it, and lost by two. Again, Missouri was not a more talented team than we were. 

The next year we lost one score games at home to BYU and Miss State, the latter of which was playing a backup QB who couldn't complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage if his life depended on it.  We had significant talent advantages in each of those games.

Win half of these games and the record goes to 10-14...still not great but at least defensible.  In that case your talent argument has more merit. 

I don't expect Sam or anyone else to get every 50/50 call right.  I do expect close to 50/50 results in one score games.  If your talent is good enough to be in position to win in the fourth quarter, it is good enough to win at least half of those games. 

[Ray Zorback]

Sometimes that is the case.  Others, it isn't.

Let's just look at 2022.

We lost to A&M because we missed a late FG in a situation where we shouldn't have been playing for one.  We had plenty of time to score a TD, but chose to go conservative and rely on our kicker...a great one, but like all college kickers, not a sure thing. 

Liberty beat us by two at home.  There is no universe where their talent was even comparable to ours.

LSU scored their only touchdown on a short field, because Pittman thought the smart play was to go for it on 4th and long with a backup QB who couldn't throw.  We lost by 3.

We also played for a FG from the three yard line down five versus Missouri in the 4th quarter, made it, and lost by two. Again, Missouri was not a more talented team than we were. 

The next year we lost one score games at home to BYU and Miss State, the latter of which was playing a backup QB who couldn't complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage if his life depended on it.  We had significant talent advantages in each of those games.

Win half of these games and the record goes to 10-14...still not great but at least defensible.  In that case your talent argument has more merit. 

I don't expect Sam or anyone else to get every 50/50 call right.  I do expect close to 50/50 results in one score games.  If your talent is good enough to be in position to win in the fourth quarter, it is good enough to win at least half of those games. 

 

Thanks a lot. I had blocked those from my memory.

[DirkPiggler]

Thanks a lot. I had blocked those from my memory.

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

[Barton Fink]

The aTm game was lost because Little missed an easy kick.

We are a 6 win program over the last 35 years. Blame coaches/players if you wish.  We are who we are. I have no reason to think the next hire will make us any better.

[DirkPiggler]

The aTm game was lost because Little missed an easy kick.

We are a 6 win program over the last 35 years. Blame coaches/players if you wish.  We are who we are. I have no reason to think the next hire will make us any better.

Trust college kickers...even the best ones...at your own peril.  Why leave it in a kicker's hands (legs?) when you can take that variability out?  Divide the responsibility among eleven guys rather than just one.

Pittman is far from our only problem, and maybe not even the worst (it starts higher up the food chain).  But he is a relatively low hanging fruit area where we can gain marginal improvement. 

If we're going to accept the fact that we're always going to be 6-6 and hoping for the Liberty Bowl, why invest anything at all? 

[DirkPiggler]

For the record I'd happily eat crow on everything I've said about Pittman if he could somehow win eight games regular season this year against this schedule (assuming none of the losses are to non-conference foes excluding ND or to Miss State at home).  This isn't a Nutt situation where I just want to see him gone.  The best possible outcome would be for Sam to prove me and the rest of his detractors wrong.

[Borenutz]

For the record I'd happily eat crow on everything I've said about Pittman if he could somehow win eight games regular season this year against this schedule (assuming none of the losses are to non-conference foes excluding ND or to Miss State at home).  This isn't a Nutt situation where I just want to see him gone.  The best possible outcome would be for Sam to prove me and the rest of his detractors wrong.

This. I don't get the thought of wishing the hogs or Sam to lose so we can be done with him. I'd rather us win 6 vs 4. And if we feel 6 is underperforming, fire him. But I don't wish fewer wins to save a few bucks. At this point it's a difference of a couple million saved if he were to just tank.  But if he wins 8+, there's still no reason to overreact and extend. I think this is Sam's last job as a coach, no matter what. Nobody in power 5 is going to call calling if he were fired or contract ran out.