Bread/Milk Alert. Storm of the century tonight!

[GeoHogsGeo]

I'd like to know what percentage of tornado warnings end up with actual tornadoes on the ground.  When I was a kid, if a tornado warning was announced, that meant there was a tornado sighted in the county and to take cover.  Now, it seems like we have tornado warnings all the time and very few actually end up as tornadoes. 

Back in the day, most of the warnings that were issued were issued based on observed sightings. With the advancement of technology (particularly radar), you are able to assess and get more intimate with a storm. This allows you to see precursors for the onset of severe weather (Winds/Hail/Tornado) to develop. It's a double-edge sword however; because warning criteria now can be issued based on the precursors to justify the warning to the public. But just because you start to see the precursors, doesn't mean it will occur definitively, thus false alarm rates increase. But to NWS Offices, the warnings are justified with meteorological reasoning (radar data).

[arreferee]

Back in the day, most of the warnings that were issued were issued based on observed sightings. With the advancement of technology (particularly radar), you are able to assess and get more intimate with a storm. This allows you to see precursors for the onset of severe weather (Winds/Hail/Tornado) to develop. It's a double-edge sword however; because warning criteria now can be issued based on the precursors to justify the warning to the public. But just because you start to see the precursors, doesn't mean it will occur definitively, thus false alarm rates increase. But to NWS Offices, the warnings are justified with meteorological reasoning (radar data).

I don't doubt they are justified based on what they see on a radar, but it seems the number of actual tornadoes is very low compared to the number of warnings.  I'll probably die in a tornado one day because I've probably been under 100 tornado warnings (probably not that many but it seems like it) over the past 20 years and there has never been a tornado go through the property where I live.  I almost ignore the warnings now because it's not worth spending every night under my house because of some thunder and lightning.

[The Whyte Boar]

Ever been out in the woods and see where a storm blew through?  You know the storms that weren't anywhere near a town and no one ever saw?  Yeah, well now technology is so good, those are getting reported but they don't really register with the public because unless you own the woods, they don't matter.  That kind of feeds into the whole "cry wolf" aspect of people ignoring storm warnings and alerts.

[BASS]

I'd like to know what percentage of tornado warnings end up with actual tornadoes on the ground.  When I was a kid, if a tornado warning was announced, that meant there was a tornado sighted in the county and to take cover.  Now, it seems like we have tornado warnings all the time and very few actually end up as tornadoes. 

a radar indicated tornado can many times be a rotating vortex of air, but up in the storm cell, and not on the ground.

[Lurk]

I'd like to know what percentage of tornado warnings end up with actual tornadoes on the ground.  When I was a kid, if a tornado warning was announced, that meant there was a tornado sighted in the county and to take cover.  Now, it seems like we have tornado warnings all the time and very few actually end up as tornadoes. 

Download the WeatherWise app and learn to use it.
One of the radar sub categories is correlation coefficient. It will show a debris signature that almost always indicates a tornado on the ground. It also will show hail. 

Storm Relative setting will show the winds. If there's bright red against bright green, it probably is on the ground. What pisses me off about local weather is that they never show the radar in motion. You can tell whether it's going to hit you or not. Which matters since all warnings are county wide and getting woke up in the middle of the night, checking the radar and falling right back to sleep when you see it's not going to hit you is nice.

Most of them don't touch down, but if you're in the way of a super cell they can drop one in a hurry.

[Lurk]

Now Davenport Ia is getting severe flooding.

[BleedinRed]

Someone should start testing the rainwater for silver iodide. 

[GeoHogsGeo]

I don't doubt they are justified based on what they see on a radar, but it seems the number of actual tornadoes is very low compared to the number of warnings.  I'll probably die in a tornado one day because I've probably been under 100 tornado warnings (probably not that many but it seems like it) over the past 20 years and there has never been a tornado go through the property where I live.  I almost ignore the warnings now because it's not worth spending every night under my house because of some thunder and lightning.

I'd give it some perspective. Some warnings you may have heard didn't affect you, but maybe it alerted someone else in the path.
Like the percentages of any given phenomena on any given forecast for the day. On-air (radio/tv) meteorologists are generally giving a percentage chance for something within their viewing areas.
Back when rainbows were in black and white, as an operational meteorologist, we lived and died by our false alarm rates and forecast accuracy. The problem was, our leaders, over time, with more advanced weaponry, technology, wanted more and more advanced lead time for preparations. There is a give and take to alerting you sooner. To give you more time, you take us being wrong more often. 15 minutes is a lifetime for changes to occur on the micro scale.
So, when policy changed, our own false alarm rate went up, but with sound meteorological reasoning, the bean counters changed the goalposts and made false alarms, BUT, with strong meteorological justification it wasn't counted against the unit metrics.

[CardHog]

I don't doubt they are justified based on what they see on a radar, but it seems the number of actual tornadoes is very low compared to the number of warnings.  I'll probably die in a tornado one day because I've probably been under 100 tornado warnings (probably not that many but it seems like it) over the past 20 years and there has never been a tornado go through the property where I live.  I almost ignore the warnings now because it's not worth spending every night under my house because of some thunder and lightning.

I'm the same and it's not because of warnings.  There have been less than 10 deaths in Benton and Washington counties since 1950 according to the following link.  I like my odds.

https://data.swtimes.com/tornado-archive/

[Lurk]

Hers a topic on another board. 

Severe weather, 11 July and forward. Forecasts of gully washers, frog stranglers, turd floaters and other incidents of abnormal precipitation.

[Natty_Ice]

[The Reverend SnoopHogg]

Fear pron already in production here as someone has posted on Facebook the NWS office in Little Rock is unable to fully staff due to budgetary cuts enacted by this administration..

[Lurk]

Fear pron already in production here as someone has posted on Facebook the NWS office in Little Rock is unable to fully staff due to budgetary cuts enacted by this administration..

Probably got rid of the dei hires.

[The Reverend SnoopHogg]

Probably got rid of the dei hires.

If we are lucky..
I quit watching the local news about Covid time because they hired a bunch of DEI idiots who couldn't speak proper English, couldn't dress like an adult, and were generally unattractive.  One in particular was about tree fiddy and had a spitting gap like Michael Strayhan.

[arreferee]

I'd give it some perspective. Some warnings you may have heard didn't affect you, but maybe it alerted someone else in the path.
Like the percentages of any given phenomena on any given forecast for the day. On-air (radio/tv) meteorologists are generally giving a percentage chance for something within their viewing areas.
Back when rainbows were in black and white, as an operational meteorologist, we lived and died by our false alarm rates and forecast accuracy. The problem was, our leaders, over time, with more advanced weaponry, technology, wanted more and more advanced lead time for preparations. There is a give and take to alerting you sooner. To give you more time, you take us being wrong more often. 15 minutes is a lifetime for changes to occur on the micro scale.
So, when policy changed, our own false alarm rate went up, but with sound meteorological reasoning, the bean counters changed the goalposts and made false alarms, BUT, with strong meteorological justification it wasn't counted against the unit metrics.

I understand all of that, but it seems like a "boy that cried wolf" situation over the past several years.  I'm numb to the warnings at this point...especially when I get a text on my phone saying a tornado warning has been issued for my exact address and there's never been one come through here (within a mile or more as far as I know).  Hopefully technology will keep advancing to where some of those warnings can be removed and be more accurate.

[GeoHogsGeo]

I understand all of that, but it seems like a "boy that cried wolf" situation over the past several years.  I'm numb to the warnings at this point...especially when I get a text on my phone saying a tornado warning has been issued for my exact address and there's never been one come through here (within a mile or more as far as I know).  Hopefully technology will keep advancing to where some of those warnings can be removed and be more accurate.

I completely empathize, I truly can. I will say, while I wore the uniform, our mission was a little easier compared to NWS. Our mission focus was normally within 5nm of the base. Some advisories and warnings stretched out to 25-50nm, but those were usually observed advisories/warnings to alert aircraft of conditions being met actively.
Most NWS Warnings are issued based on county. US counties are, on average, 1200 square miles. Square rooted, that's ~35 miles to cover. 35 miles is a large swath of coverage. Very easy to have a weather pattern set up to where one section gets more influence than other locations within that 35 miles.

[SwahiliSteve]

Anybody down in Texas living around Austin or where the floods hit west of there last weekend? At one point this weekend I saw lake Travis was closed.

[vegashog]

i was in georgetown just north of austin during all the storms. yes, lake travis and all the rivers from kerrville to the austin area are closed.

that storm killed people from san angelo to williamson county (179 miles).

[Third_down_draw]

Anybody down in Texas living around Austin or where the floods hit west of there last weekend? At one point this weekend I saw lake Travis was closed.

Travis has gone up 30 ft since the 4th but still is still 75% of capacity. It was closed for a couple days but they have opened up some parts again.                             

[SwahiliSteve]

Y'all see where wildfires have destroyed the historic Grand Canyon lodge, visitor center and other structures on the north rim? No containment on two different fires burning there.

Meanwhile our western slope is a burning mess. South rim fire of black canyon of Gunnison has burned 3556 acres. Black canyon of Gunnison is closed for now which sucks cause I wanted to head up week after next.