Parsing the rest of the season

[Show-Me Hog]

In honor of the revived woopig, a new thread.

A reasonable guess, I think, although losing at home to fucking Oklahomo, and winning @ Kentucky, shows anything can happen. The last two games could flip – winning @ Vandy but losing to Mississippi St. That would keep the final results the same.

W LSU
L @ A&M
L @ Auburn
W Missouri
W Texas
W @ South Carolina
L @ Vanderbilt
W Miss. St.

1-1 in SEC Tournament.
 
That's 20-13, 8-10, 1-1.  Is that in or out? Is 20 the minimum needed to get in?  If we fall short of what I have laid out, are we definitely out?

Is Joe Lunardi on the board?

[Pig Benis]

I think 7-11 gets us in. Any additional SEC tournament wins mean nothing unless we won the whole thing. The committee hasn't given a shit about conference tournaments the last several years.

[Show-Me Hog]

I think 7-11 gets us in. Any additional SEC tournament wins mean nothing unless we won the whole thing. The committee hasn't given a shit about conference tournaments the last several years.

So you think 18 wins gets us in? Even if we lose first round meaningless SECT?

I have a hard time thinking 18-14 is an NCAA tournament team.

[Pig Benis]

Yep. Before the conference season started I said that I thought that 7-11 would get someone in. Basically all but maybe 2 league games are Quad 1 so the wins are considered quality and the losses don't really hurt.

[BASS]

With our strength of schedule and number of quad one wins, that gets us in

[DirkPiggler]

Currently T3 Bracketology has us as their last team in the field, as an eleven seed.

For some reason I think we get A&M this Saturday, assuming we can avoid losing anyone to injury tomorrow night.  We play the same style of ball as they do...grind it out, bully ball, defense first...but with better players. They deserve their ranking based on what they've accomplished so far, and Buzz is a good coach albeit one with a limited ceiling due to inability or unwillingness to get top tier talent. 

The fact that their entire offense is two high volume/low percentage shooting guards (both under 40% overall FG and at or near 30% 3FG) bodes well for us provided we keep playing defense the way we have the last four games.  We just have to hope that the refs don't fuck us to the wall by getting our key guys in foul trouble due to the lack of depth.

I see the remainder of the year playing out like this.

W LSU
W @ A&M
L @ Auburn
W Missouri
W Texas
W @ South Carolina
L @ Vanderbilt
W Miss. St.

At 20-11, 9-9 we would be solidly in the dance.  With a couple of wins in Nashville we could probably get as high as a six or seven seed given the number of Quad 1 wins (with no bad losses) and the strength of the SEC this year.

That would put us with the following (given current NET rankings of all opponents...some could change).

Quad 1:  6-9
Quad 2: 3-2
Quad 3: 4-0
Quad 4: 7-0

Georgia is close to the cutoff between Q1/Q2 (34th...home Q1 = 1-30), so they could move up depending on how they finish the year.  Texas is currently 31st, so that one might be Q1 by the time we play them in BWA.  The only Q1 that has much risk of dropping down is Miss State (30th).

[Pig Benis]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

This has Arkansas and Texas both in play-in games. If my math is right that would be 14 SEC teams getting bids.

[Sus-Scrofa]

So you think 18 wins gets us in? Even if we lose first round meaningless SECT?

I have a hard time thinking 18-14 is an NCAA tournament team.

Earned or not, we'll get a Cal bump this year if we can get to 18-14.

It's a news driver so they'll want us in.

[arreferee]

Earned or not, we'll get a Cal bump this year if we can get to 18-14.

It's a news driver so they'll want us in.

I told my kids this just a few days ago.  With Cal's reputation, all things being equal, Arkansas will get in over a team with a coach no one knows.  I don't know if that's because the selection committee wants Arkansas in because it will draw more viewers or if Cal being the coach will give a small edge. 

[DirkPiggler]

I told my kids this just a few days ago.  With Cal's reputation, all things being equal, Arkansas will get in over a team with a coach no one knows.  I don't know if that's because the selection committee wants Arkansas in because it will draw more viewers or if Cal being the coach will give a small edge. 

This will probably also get North Carolina in.  Hell, we got in that way in 1996.  They want the big names who drive TV viewership. 

[Cornhogio]

If we can get in, I think we might be able to get into some mischief. 

[Hognrock]

I also believe 7-11 gets us to at a minimum a play-in game.

To confirm I'm remembering correctly on the NET rules.  The Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 distinction can fluctuate based on how the team progresses and NOT what they were ranked when the game was played, correct?

[buff2.0]

18 wins and we're in.  The SEC is just that brutal this year.

[rzrbkfan69]

I also believe 7-11 gets us to at a minimum a play-in game.

To confirm I'm remembering correctly on the NET rules.  The Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 distinction can fluctuate based on how the team progresses and NOT what they were ranked when the game was played, correct?

Correct

[woodhog14]

So you think 18 wins gets us in? Even if we lose first round meaningless SECT?

I have a hard time thinking 18-14 is an NCAA tournament team.

Yes. 18 gets us win because a majority of those wins are Quad-1 wins.

[Pig Benis]

The caveat would be if we were to lose to SC or LSU for a second time. Then I could see us being left out at 7-11.

[Show-Me Hog]

The caveat would be if we were to lose to SC or LSU for a second time. Then I could see us being left out at 7-11.

The LSU and Oklahoma losses are the ones that stick in my craw. We were clearly better than both of those teams. We just didn't score more points.

[Pig Benis]

Tomorrow's game is now a Quad 3. I don't think they've won a game since beating us. It's a must win.

[animal]

SC on the road will be tough.

I need to go cancel my YTTV subscription seeings how you can watch these games on youtube for free via bootlegs. Also I promised myself if the Hogs were trash I'd cancel my subscription after the Superbowl and what a let down that was. Poor Chiefs they got violated in ways I don't want to think about. Shitty game plan by the Walrus man. I may give the Hogs one more week to see what they do though.

[Borenutz]

The LSU and Oklahoma losses are the ones that stick in my craw. We were clearly better than both of those teams. We just didn't score more points.

Especially Oklahoma at home. Bad loss in SEC terms.