Fayette Villains…In Depth Analysis

[hit_that_line]

I think we can all agree this team is underachieving.

Never expected to beat LSU. We'd all feel a lot better if we had beaten BYU. I think we'll give A&M hell but I'm afraid they've found a QB.

[Show-Me Hog]

Never expected to beat LSU. We'd all feel a lot better if we had beaten BYU. I think we'll give A&M hell but I'm afraid they've found a QB.

Hm the linked article certainly was not as impressed as you are.

Conner Weigman left this game with an apparent ankle injury. Max Johnson came in and did the typical "backup doesn't overthink it", quickly leading a pair of touchdown drives that put the game out of reach. Less the hype train for Johnson get too far down the tracks, note that Johnson is very much a known entity, and he's not as good as Weigman. Johnson couldn't hold the starting job in Baton Rouge and has lost it to Weigman in College Station twice: both last November and this spring.

[hit_that_line]

Don't care dude dropped some dimes after their offense looked like ass with the other guy. Don't give two shits what an article says.

[Pig Benis]

Aggies open -4

[buff2.0]

Never bet against a Maximum Johnson.  One second you've got things well in hand and the next there's a ball deep where you didn't want it to go.

[BASS]

Never expected to beat LSU. We'd all feel a lot better if we had beaten BYU. I think we'll give A&M hell but I'm afraid they've found a QB.

Expected to? No, but we played well enough to win by double digits and couldn't stop stepping on our own dicks in a night game in one of toughest places to play.  So we were capable of a lot more than we thought.

Which means we really shit the bed against byu. Should have beaten those punks by 20.

[Thin Red Swine]

The full write-up dropped.

https://www.fayvillains.com/2023/09/24/box-score-breakdown-lsu-34-arkansas-31/


The defense wasn't that bad when measured against the best offense it will face and the offense exceeded its expected points, which is good and bad...


Our models say that this game was not as close as a final score indicated. Noise-adjusted points turns down the impact of high-leverage, unpredictable, or otherwise chaotic plays that are unlikely to repeat. Essentially, Arkansas didn't play amazing on offense, and they were fairly lucky to get to 31 points, given that they allowed 13 negative plays and converted several third-and-longs just to stay in the game.

Unfortunately, noise-adjusted points are more predictive of future performance than actual points, so unless the Hogs fix the major issues with the offensive tackles and general lack of discipline, the offense is unlikely to be as productive as it was on Saturday.

[animal]

Some of these analytics just seem like some made up Porkatarian level of shit. Sure we goofy dicked our way to 31 points but LSU LET US DO IT.

[Cardiac Hog]

The full write-up dropped.

https://www.fayvillains.com/2023/09/24/box-score-breakdown-lsu-34-arkansas-31/


The defense wasn't that bad when measured against the best offense it will face and the offense exceeded its expected points, which is good and bad...


Our models say that this game was not as close as a final score indicated. Noise-adjusted points turns down the impact of high-leverage, unpredictable, or otherwise chaotic plays that are unlikely to repeat. Essentially, Arkansas didn't play amazing on offense, and they were fairly lucky to get to 31 points, given that they allowed 13 negative plays and converted several third-and-longs just to stay in the game.

Unfortunately, noise-adjusted points are more predictive of future performance than actual points, so unless the Hogs fix the major issues with the offensive tackles and general lack of discipline, the offense is unlikely to be as productive as it was on Saturday.

Outside of the 1st qtr, the defense was ass.
 
1ST      POSS   PLAYS   YDS   RESULT
13:40   LSU 14   0:51   3   6   PUNT
5:56   LSU 25   2:50   6   39   INT
2:59   LSU 31   4:35   9   29   PUNT

2ND      POSS   PLAYS   YDS   RESULT
6:33   LSU 25   2:31   8   68   FG
0:48   LSU 25   0:18   3   75   TD

3RD      POSS   PLAYS   YDS   RESULT
15:00   LSU 25   1:00   3   75   TD
5:44   LSU 25   4:04   9   75   TD

4TH      POSS   PLAYS   YDS   RESULT
14:11   LSU 25   4:28   10   75   TD
5:06   LSU 25   5:01   9   72   FG
 

[Feral]

Some of these analytics just seem like some made up Porkatarian level of shit. Sure we goofy dicked our way to 31 points but LSU LET US DO IT.

Yeah, I get what he's trying to say about "unrepeatable plays," but I'd argue that many plays in college football are unrepeatable.

KJ's Superman last year against A&M was the epitome of an unrepeatable play, but Rocket nearly repeated it against Missouri State when he fumbled on the goal line inches from a TD. KJ's near sack turned 40 yard completion to Knox against BYU last year is a textbook unrepeatable play, but how many times have we seen KJ get hit, stay up, and find a receiver for a first down (he'll he did it Saturday night to Dubinion).

I love FV, but the advanced stats don't take into account very real things in college football like momentum swings, youth, emotional dynamics, and other things difficult to quantify.

[vegashog]

exactly. intangibles play a huge part in the college game.

[HogOfWar]

Yeah, I get what he's trying to say about "unrepeatable plays," but I'd argue that many plays in college football are unrepeatable.

KJ's Superman last year against A&M was the epitome of an unrepeatable play, but Rocket nearly repeated it against Missouri State when he fumbled on the goal line inches from a TD. KJ's near sack turned 40 yard completion to Knox against BYU last year is a textbook unrepeatable play, but how many times have we seen KJ get hit, stay up, and find a receiver for a first down (he'll he did it Saturday night to Dubinion).

I love FV, but the advanced stats don't take into account very real things in college football like momentum swings, youth, emotional dynamics, and other things difficult to quantify.

I would rather the objective stuff, instead of relying on the subjective stuff. The subjective leads to holding onto that rope, moral victories, and two year passes.

[Feral]

I would rather the objective stuff, instead of relying on the subjective stuff. The subjective leads to holding onto that rope, moral victories, and two year passes.

Can't no math equation account for loving the helmet.

[FNG]

Some of these analytics just seem like some made up Porkatarian level of shit. Sure we goofy dicked our way to 31 points but LSU LET US DO IT.

There does seem to be a bit of editorial confirmation bias in some of his analyses.

For instance: "they were fairly lucky to get to 31 points, given that they allowed 13 negative plays and converted several third-and-longs just to stay in the game."

Here he interprets the converting of "several third-and-longs" as "lucky" while others might attribute those multiple conversions to talent and preparation.

[vegashog]

he preferred briles over enos. nothing wrong with that per se, but it seems he lets that enter into his analysis at times.

[Thin Red Swine]

Yeah he definitely nerds out too much, but I like the effort and the video clips of different concepts they're trying.

I DO agree that we can't rely on converting as many third and long plays as in this one, even if it was a Poindexter way of laying it out.

At least Enos went with some plays that aren't his calling card, like the inside zone stuff with Dubinion.

[Feral]

he preferred briles over enos. nothing wrong with that per se, but it seems he lets that enter into his analysis at times.

He seems to have been fairly bipolar on both Enos and Briles.

He derided Briles often last year for his penchant for slow starts, quick 3 and outs, and red zone issues. Similarly,
he praised the Enos hire at the time and did a piece on the 2015 offense after it was announced.

However, right before the season he put out a harsh reality piece that was a quite a bit of a tonal shift, and basically said we would struggle in Enos's system because it relies on out-talenting the opponent and is schematically different from Briles' system (and what the players were recruited for and accustomed to), and focused on YAC. In the same breath, he seemed to be praising Briles's system and explosive plays.

To give him credit, he correctly predicted we'd struggle under Enos's system early, that Rocket would struggle because he led the SEC in YBC but was among the worst in YAC, and that our explosive play rate would be significantly reduced.

Ford is light years better than anything in our state media and I follow him closely, but I think he's been sort of all over the place this season. He does, however, seem to be out on Pittman now. This tweet definitely caught my eye.

https://x.com/adamford92/status/1705772239210033181?s=46&t=297ONz0wKqA0bIkQdTGMTQ

[vegashog]

knocking pittman is justified, but what the hell does his agent have to do with it.

does he think sexton is somehow unhappy with pittman? that it will hurt him when it comes time to get another of his clients paid?

[DirkPiggler]

knocking pittman is justified, but what the hell does his agent have to do with it.

does he think sexton is somehow unhappy with pittman? that it will hurt him when it comes time to get another of his clients paid?

Sam was sold to us as this good ol' boy, loves the helmet, no need to negotiate guy with a hometown agent.   As soon as he had a decent season he kicked that agent, who went a long way towards getting him the job in the first place, to the curb for a scumbag with a history of fücking over Arkansas and shitting on us to his clients at every opportunity. 

I'm all for making as much money for yourself as the market will bear, but don't hold yourself out to be something different or uniquely loyal in the process. 

[animal]

I think the line will get better as the season goes and with that so goes the offense. The skill guys are also going to get better/more comfortable and we're going to find ways of helping protect the qb and help out the offensive line. If he wants to lean on histrionics then fine. Lines tend to get better especially young lines. Hell we may be doing that dumb shit where we intentionally came in over weight and are going to be at the right weight at the right time. These guys may not get tons better but may round into something "serviceable". 

You can say our close loss was just dumb luck and we scored on freak plays and all that. That's fine it's what happened to some degree. I think if you've watched much of KJ Jefferson and Arkansas football over the last 20 years you'll note that we tend to have one or two players that do freak shit and that's how we score. That's it...that's the game plan. You can only analyze the shit out of that so much before it just doesn't make sense.

Ford's previous takes on what would become our struggles were certainly spot on but I don't necessarily agree with his assessment about having to "out talent" to win with this scheme. He acts as if we are trying to be Georgia or Bama and beat them at their own game. LOL. When have we ever had better talent than anyone in the SEC WEST? Never. Perhaps at certain position groups but as a whole team/offense nope. Not even under Petrino where our lines were largely disappointing and got no help.

I don't care what offense you run in the SEC if you don't have talent at every position group no amount of window dressing is going to make a difference. The rest is just semantics on zone blocking vs whatever and how we line up so wide, all that schematic stuff. Calling plays at mid-field all bunched up and then running a shotgun play and giving it to a dead legged running back who isn't even going half speed when he gets the ball because he's too busy trying to decide how he's going to die. Anyway yeah jimmy's and joes plus coaches with brains matters the most over anything else. I feel as though Briles got in his own way...I think we're seeing something similar with Enos but perhaps not as bad. I think to some degree maybe he's still learning who his guys are moving forward.