Razorback Football

[DirkPiggler]

That's enough right there. Can anyone come up with 10 examples in their Razorback lives where we got a break? I'm sure there are some from the good years, so limit it to since we joined the SEC.

I can think of two that ended up making the difference in an outcome.  The phantom 4th down defensive holding called against Alabama on our winning drive in 2000, and the twelve men on the field missed on the play before we scored the winning TD against them in 1997.  Those were each from when Roy Kramer was still commissioner of the SEC, the last one who wasn't corrupt as fuck and who allowed us to have a fair shake.

[The Whyte Boar]

I can think of two that ended up making the difference in an outcome.  The phantom 4th down defensive holding called against Alabama on our winning drive in 2000, and the twelve men on the field missed on the play before we scored the winning TD against them in 1997.  Those were each from when Roy Kramer was still commissioner of the SEC, the last one who wasn't corrupt as fuck and who allowed us to have a fair shake.

Not to mention Frank wasn't completely senile by then and he still carried a fairly large stick in the good old boy network of college football in those days.

[Papa Pigeritus]

The only good thing about Razorback football is the Woopussy.

While the meltdowns in the moment suck, they do make for some fine reading a day or two later.

[DRYANKNPULL]

Alabama A&M - Win
AK State - Win
Ole Miss - Win
Memphis - Win
Notre Dame - Loss
Tennessee - Loss
Texas A&M - Win
Auburn - Win
MS State - Win
LSU - Loss
Texas - Win
Missouri - Win

What is that?  9 wins.  We may catch LSU or Tennessee or both to finish with 10-11 wins.  I like it. 

You forgot that we don't beat A&M. It was part of the agreement.

[Son of Spam]

Yawn... you mean we are still playing football?

[Natty_Ice]

We finally gonna beat Mizzou?  Is this the year?  It's so crazy to even think about.  Imagine all of the NIL offerings if the Hogs could pull off such an earth shattering upset.  gosh

[animal]

losing the top 5 instate kids screams that we're unwilling to fork over the cash and other schools like Mizzou and OK State will. 

[buff2.0]

Yawn... you mean we are still playing football?

Yes, they're forcing us to have a season again.

[Pig Benis]

losing the top 5 instate kids screams that we're unwilling to fork over the cash and other schools like Mizzou and OK State will.

Which goes back to my post above about the revenue sharing. We clearly saw the writing on the wall and mailed it in on the football program a long time ago. Find a way to give more of that money to baseball and basketball.

[BleedinRed]

You forgot that we don't beat A&M. It was part of the agreement.

Just like Ole Miss in Oxford, we are due against A&M and MS State.

We finally gonna beat Mizzou?  Is this the year?  It's so crazy to even think about.  Imagine all of the NIL offerings if the Hogs could pull off such an earth shattering upset.  gosh

What do you mean?  We beat Mizzou's ass 4 short years ago!

[Olhickoryhog]

I can think of two that ended up making the difference in an outcome.  The phantom 4th down defensive holding called against Alabama on our winning drive in 2000, and the twelve men on the field missed on the play before we scored the winning TD against them in 1997.  Those were each from when Roy Kramer was still commissioner of the SEC, the last one who wasn't corrupt as fuck and who allowed us to have a fair shake.

That's a pretty encompassing list. The 12 men on the field was in 1995. The very next play was the touchdown pass to JJ Meadors. I still think JJ caught it but there is a 0% chance the officials call that a catch if it happened against Alabama any of the past 20 years.

I've never seen a replay of the 2000 Alabama game but I had a class with a couple of football players that year and they both said we had 12 men on the field for the game winning touchdown pass to Poydras in that game.

The only other thing that comes to mind was the facemask penalty on the 2 point attempt against ole miss in 2015. It was definitely a facemask but I'm really surprised they called it.

[DirkPiggler]

That's a pretty encompassing list. The 12 men on the field was in 1995. The very next play was the touchdown pass to JJ Meadors. I still think JJ caught it but there is a 0% chance the officials call that a catch if it happened against Alabama any of the past 20 years.

I've never seen a replay of the 2000 Alabama game but I had a class with a couple of football players that year and they both said we had 12 men on the field for the game winning touchdown pass to Poydras in that game.

The only other thing that comes to mind was the facemask penalty on the 2 point attempt against ole miss in 2015. It was definitely a facemask but I'm really surprised they called it.

I couldn't remember if it was 1995 or 1997.  Thought it was the latter, as Cory Nichols out of McClellan was the 12th man (think we were in power I with TB and two FBs, with a TE and 2 WR). 

You're absolutely right that the defensive holding in 2000 wouldn't have been called.  Or if it was the white hat would overrule the other officials and pick up the flag in the league's (Alabama's) best interest. 

They only called the facemask on BA in 2015 because it was too obvious to ignore, and because it benefitted Alabama by keeping Ole Miss from winning the west that year.

[DirkPiggler]

Great article from The Athletic, which busts a myth that many who shit upon our program spew out. 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6451165/2025/06/26/college-football-teams-nick-saban-national-championship/?campaign=14018644&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=15514385

[Usafhawg]

Great article from The Athletic, which busts a myth that many who shit upon our program spew out. 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6451165/2025/06/26/college-football-teams-nick-saban-national-championship/?campaign=14018644&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=15514385

You have to pay to read it.

[razor5396]

You have to pay to read it.

https://archive.ph/OyDwk

[buff2.0]

You have to pay to read it.

How many college football teams could have won a national title with Nick Saban?
Matt BakerJune 26, 2025 6:00 am CDT
How many college football teams could have won a national title with Nick Saban?
Editor's note: This story is a part of No Wrong Answers, a series that explores the college sports questions you've always been curious about — and the ones you never thought to ask. Read our attempt to figure out which college football team has the most fans here.

Before Nick Saban became the greatest coach of all time, he was calculated about the jobs he took. The LSU and Alabama programs he inherited were underachievers that still had great recruiting footprints, top-tier resources, storied traditions and everything else that adds up to championship potential. Saban turned them into champions again. But what if Saban chose differently?

What if, instead of pursuing distressed assets, he went after a bigger fixer-upper — or a program that was never up in the first place? That leads us to this hypothetical with no wrong answers.

Let's say Saban left Alabama after winning it all in 2015. What's the worst program the best version of the best coach in college football history could have led to a national title? Could he have lived out the video game dynasty mode fantasy of turning a low-prestige program into a champion? What limits would there have been to Saban's power?

To come up with a good-faith, albeit unscientific, answer, The Athletic examined six critical factors, from on-field metrics to talent to money. We identified every FBS program's historic norms, quantified Alabama's growth under Saban — let's call it the Saban Effect — and then determined whether he could have pushed that school past the threshold necessary to win a national championship.

Our process took us from 133 potential candidates — every FBS incumbent except for Alabama (no need to game that one out) — to a list of 33 programs. The final list of possible title winners includes obvious headliners, a couple of surprises and one very tantalizing what-if.

At the end, we survey our staff for their thoughts. Let us know who you think Saban could have won a championship with in the comments.

Factor 1: On-field success

It's unreasonable to think that even Saban could lead perennial cellar-dwellers like UMass or his alma mater, Kent State, to a national championship. So we used two sets of advanced metrics to lop off the bottom chunk of the FBS. Bear with us for a little wonky math that's not as complicated as it sounds.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and Sports Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) both crunch numbers beyond wins and losses to compare teams to the national average. For broad context, the best teams' ratings are generally above 20, and the worst teams are below negative-20.

Before Saban (2005-06), Alabama's FPI average was 11.6. During his 2010-13 peak, the Crimson Tide's average FPI was 29. Subtract Saban's starting point from his peak, and we see how much better he made the Crimson Tide: a Saban Effect of 17.4.

With SRS, we compared the four years before Saban to a different elite stretch (2017-20). The Saban Effect (17.1) was about the same.

Still with us? Good.

Our next step was to establish the advanced-metrics floor for title winners. Aside from 2010 Auburn — not even Saban can clone Cam Newton — the lowest FPI for a recent national champion was 24 (Saban's 2009 Crimson Tide). In SRS, it was 20 (2016 Clemson).

Because the Saban Effect boosts his new team by about 17, a program needed a baseline of 6.6 in FPI and 2.9 in SRS to reach the championship floor. Our grading was generous; a program passed if it averaged those figures over any four-season stint since 2005.

This category knocked out 70 teams, including Illinois, Maryland, Purdue, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Virginia and Wake Forest at the Power 4 level — plus Toledo, Saban's first head coaching job in 1990.

The only teams outside the current Power 4 to live on? Pac-12 holdovers Oregon State and Washington State, plus Appalachian State, Boise State, Memphis and South Florida.



Factor 2: Recruiting average

You can't win championships without loaded recruiting classes, and nobody in modern college football history has amassed talent on the recruiting trail like Saban. We used the same thought process as in Factor 1 to determine whether adding Saban's recruiting prowess could build a championship-level roster at each school. We assumed any program that hires him will provide the staff and infrastructure necessary to sign top-tier classes ... as long as they're financially able to do so (we'll come back to that).

We used Rivals' rankings because its data goes back farthest, and we excluded Saban's 2007 transition class, signed just after he became head coach.

Alabama recruiting pre-Saban (2002-06)

Average class ranking: 24.6
Average star ranking per signee: 3.15

Alabama recruiting with Saban (2008-23)

Average class ranking: 1.9
Average star ranking per signee:  4.11
That data gives us a Saban Effect of about 23 spots in the class rankings and almost one full star per recruit.

To find the recruiting floor for a national championship, we analyzed the four classes before a team's title run (those hauls formed the bulk of every depth chart). All but 2010 Auburn averaged a top-12 ranking or better, and nearly every champion since 2005 averaged at least 3.6 stars per signee. Those thresholds mean a team's historical average must be a top-35 recruiting class or 2.6 stars to rise to championship contention with the Saban Effect.

This factor eliminates the remaining teams outside the Power 4, except for Oregon State. Though BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF were weighed down by their time outside a Power 4 conference, none have signed a top-35 class since joining the Big 12, either.

The list of 53 contenders still includes Cal (which hit both criteria) along with Kansas, Boston College, Northwestern and Rutgers (which survived based on their recruits' average star ranking).

Two other caveats: We ignored the transfer portal as a workaround because Saban relied mostly on high school prospects during his Alabama tenure. And because his Crimson Tide recruited so well nationally — he plucked superstars everywhere from Texas, Florida, California, New Jersey and Hawaii — we didn't consider geography or proximity to talent, which were inherent advantages Saban had at Alabama.



Factor 3: Five-star ceiling

This one is slightly arbitrary but simple. Even though Saban is a historically great recruiter, it's unrealistic to expect him to sign several elite prospects annually at a school that has no track record of doing so. Our proof-of-concept requirement: at least one five-star signee in any of the 24 classes of the modern recruiting era.

Kansas' title hopes end here, along with Baylor, Iowa State, Minnesota and Northwestern. Georgia Tech's out, too, because Calvin Johnson was merely a four-star prospect by Rivals.

But three-time Pro Bowler DeSean Jackson was a five-star talent, which helped Cal advance. The top junior college signee of 2008, defensive lineman Simu Kuli, keeps Oregon State in the mix, just as the No. 25 recruit in the 2004 class, linebacker Brian Toal, pushes Boston College to the next phase.



Factor 4: Money

Even if a school is willing to install and implement Saban's famed "Process," it has to have the money to fund his army of analysts while competing in the arms races of facilities and NIL.

In the three years before Saban's arrival, Alabama reported an average of $46.9 million in football revenue to the U.S. Department of Education. In the three years after his arrival, the Crimson Tide reported $64.6 million. We'll expect a proportional bounce for other schools, so the Saban Effect is a 38 percent income bump based on the wins and booster buzz he'd provide.

Because fiscal years don't overlap cleanly with football seasons, the numbers are squishy. But almost every national champion since 2005 has ranked among the top 10 in football expenses around its title run. A 38 percent increase in football revenue still wasn't enough to jolt the budgets of Boston College, Cal, Oregon State and Rutgers consistently to that level. We'll assume they can't give Saban the resources he demands, so they're the next group to go.



Factor 5: NFL Draft

Because elite talent doesn't always lead to championships, we also have to consider how well that talent was developed. The NFL Draft is an imperfect but instructive barometer.

Average NFL Draft picks

Pre-Saban (2003-07): 4.2 per year
Saban Era (2008-24): 7.8 per year
Saban Effect: 3.6 per year
Since Saban's 2011 title team, most national champions have produced about 30 picks over the next three drafts. A reasonable floor was 18 (the number of draftees from Trevor Lawrence's 2018 Clemson team).

If the Saban Effect alone provides 10.8 picks over three seasons, the team itself must produce 7.2. That's an average of 2.4 picks per year. If a program hasn't been able to clear that relatively low bar since 2000, it probably lacks the infrastructure required for Saban to lift the team to the top.

This factor knocks out Arizona, Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and West Virginia, the flagship school of Saban's home state. Our list is down to 35, with Arizona State (2.46 picks per year) barely squeaking through.



Factor 6: Proven potential

Like five-star recruiting, this final category is simple and somewhat arbitrary. It's hard to think a team is capable of winning a national championship if it has never flashed championship potential. Both Alabama and LSU won titles before Saban, and both had a 10-win season in the four years before his arrival.

Our proof-of-concept bar is lower. We mandated at least one AP top-10 finish since 1992 (the year of Alabama's last pre-Saban crown). That means we must say goodbye to Pitt and North Carolina State, the latter of which has never finished in the top 10.

Their exits leave us with this final list of 33 programs (plus Alabama) that could have won a national championship with the peak version of Nick Saban:

Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Utah, Virginia Tech, Washington and Wisconsin.

Not surprisingly, the group includes every national champion since Colorado and Georgia Tech split the crown in 1990.



The Michigan State question

The Spartans, who haven't won a national title since 1966, are the most intriguing option because Saban coached there from 1995-99. He went 25-22-1 over his first four seasons before a 9-2, top-10 breakthrough that springboarded him to LSU.

You can use his mixed Michigan State tenure as evidence that Saban couldn't build a champion without the elite resources, tradition and recruiting pull of a marquee program like LSU or Alabama. In that case, the list is probably smaller than 33.

You can also reach the opposite conclusion. Perhaps Saban simply needed time to amass enough talent to revamp a program that had only one top-10 finish in the previous quarter century. Or maybe the early struggles at his first head coaching job in a major conference provided the teachable moments that turned him into the greatest coach ever.

What if he stayed in East Lansing for the long haul? That's a what-if for another day.

The worst program Saban could have led to a national title is ...

Of our final 33 contenders, nine have not claimed a national championship in the AP poll era (since 1936). Oregon and Virginia Tech have both played for a title since the BCS began, so set them aside, too.

Our answer, then, is on this worst-of-the-best list: Arizona State, Louisville, North Carolina, South Carolina, Stanford, Utah and Wisconsin. By our numbers, the weakest remaining option is ...

Louisville!

The Cardinals are the only one without a top-five finish since 1990 and had the lowest average FPI. Their recruiting rankings were virtually tied with Utah at the bottom of the top tier, and the Sun Devils were the only contender with lower NFL Draft production. Louisville's perch in the ACC also provides a power conference starting point with an easier route to the Playoff.

Pair a Saban defense with 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and a national title doesn't seem outlandish.

Who else belongs in the discussion?

To add a human element to the debate, we surveyed 17 of The Athletic's college sports staffers for their thoughts. Baylor and Texas Tech (12 votes each) are the top contenders that didn't crack our above list. Multiple staffers said Saban could have won titles at Maryland and Virginia. Scott Dochterman picked Louisville as Saban's worst potential championship for the reasons cited above. Other answers included:

West Virginia: "He would sign all his boys from his hometown and turn them into studs that crushed everyone with their toughness and physicality." — Grace Raynor

Stanford: "I'm really intrigued by if he could have won at Stanford in their heyday (which was not that many years ago) ... Could he have made Christian McCaffrey even more dominant?" — Lindsay Schnell

South Carolina: "The Gamecocks' only three top-10 seasons came under one Hall of Fame coach (Steve Spurrier), and another (Lou Holtz) never fared better than the Outback Bowl. But both were in their final years. If Spurrier could win 11 games three times during the Saban era while nearing retirement, it's not a stretch to think peak Saban could have elevated the Gamecocks to an even higher level and won a national title." — Matt Baker

Michigan State: "Ironically, Michigan State is probably the worst program that I thought Saban could lead to a national championship, which he left to go win a national championship at LSU. Also, everyone in the SEC could/would win it all with Saban other than Mississippi State and Vanderbilt." — Pete Sampson

Washington: "And even that I thought was a stretch. I firmly believe that in college football its nature over nurture when it comes to the ability to contend for a national title. Even the greatest coach of all-time needs the right conditions. Saban himself recognized that. Which is why he ended up at Alabama in the first place." — Ralph D. Russo

Of the 68 Power 4 teams, 17 schools received unanimous support for being able to win a national title under Saban: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and USC.

Apologies to the six schools that received zero votes: Kansas, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

[BleedinRed]

Statements like this always facinate me:

"You can use his mixed Michigan State tenure as evidence that Saban couldn't build a champion without the elite resources, tradition and recruiting pull of a marquee program like LSU or Alabama."

LSU was not a marquee program prior to Nick. Best case is they were Arkansas.  In the 90s, they were definetly worse than Arkansas.  The right head coach can change the course of history.

[Lurk]

That's a pretty encompassing list. The 12 men on the field was in 1995. The very next play was the touchdown pass to JJ Meadors. I still think JJ caught it but there is a 0% chance the officials call that a catch if it happened against Alabama any of the past 20 years.

I've never seen a replay of the 2000 Alabama game but I had a class with a couple of football players that year and they both said we had 12 men on the field for the game winning touchdown pass to Poydras in that game.

The only other thing that comes to mind was the facemask penalty on the 2 point attempt against ole miss in 2015. It was definitely a facemask but I'm really surprised they called it.

So, two of our three breaks in 33 years happened in one game. We're going to have to learn to spread them out some. 

We're cursed.

[bigpig]

We are going to beat someone we have no business beating, and then lose to someone we have not business losing to. Anyone who brings up the loss will have Pittman on twitter crying about not giving any respect to him for beating the team we should have lost to, as if that entitled him to lose a game we should have won.

Rinse and repeat.

It never ends.

[rzrbkfan69]

We are going to beat someone we have no business beating, and then lose to someone we have not business losing to. Anyone who brings up the loss will have Pittman on twitter crying about not giving any respect to him for beating the team we should have lost to, as if that entitled him to lose a game we should have won.

Rinse and repeat.

It never ends.

So we will beat Ole Miss, then lose to Mississippi St.